For once, the UK’s inflation story is drifting from grim to vaguely cheerful. After four years of outpacing the US and euro area, and after a 3.4% rise in prices over the past year, inflation now looks set to drop sharply. Come April, it is expected to fall to around 2%, basically bang on the Bank of England’s target. Even President Trump might secretly envy a central bank that looks like it can actually hit 2%. Three forces are doing the heavy lifting. First, energy. The com

Our Prime Minister is hanging on, but only just. The argument goes that although Sir Keir Starmer’s government is weak and unpopular, replacing him would likely make things worse. British politics has seen leaders cling on after losing authority, and maybe we should hope Starmer can as well – not because he can turn this around, but because the alternatives are worse. If Starmer falls, his successor would almost certainly come from Labour’s left, pushing policies voters have

I do not imagine that any of this is new to you, however I should start this week’s missive with comment on Sir Keir Starmer and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. The story has quite fairly dominated news flows this week after the prime minister admitted he did know about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein from a document he was handed at the end of December 2024. Crucially this was before he appointed Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States.

The first few weeks of 2026 have been anything but dull. Over just one weekend, America threatened to slap Canada with 100% tariffs, US Congress started squabbling toward yet another possible shutdown, Japan experienced its own Liz Truss style bond meltdown, China accused one of its own generals of leaking nuclear secrets, and the US dollar continued to weaken. And yet, in the middle of all this “noise,” the stock market has pretty much sailed through the storm as if it was a

European leaders in Brussels breathed a collective sigh of relief this week after Donald Trump suddenly decided not to slap new tariffs on them or try to “buy” Greenland. It was, in their eyes, the diplomatic equivalent of waking up from a bad dream — one that could have wrecked decades of transatlantic friendship. Trump’s original plan to grab Greenland and punish Europe with trade barriers had shocked leaders from Copenhagen to Berlin at this week’s gathering in Davos. The

Markets have come a long way in the last ten years. 2009 heralded ten years of low interest rates, ample liquidity via Quantitative Easing and a strengthening global supply chain. In the last three years this has morphed into higher inflation, huge public debt, and reshoring of industrial capacity and sudden fall in global trade. As a result, policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and capital movements now influence markets as strongly as traditional economic cycles. For inves

Looking back on last year, it was very pleasing to see that investment returns defied the barrage of political and economic noise throughout the year. In spite of ongoing debates around whether governments are spending too much, if the economy can continue to grow, the impact of military flare-ups across the world, and concerns over various market bubbles, nonetheless major equity indices were up between 12-20% in 2025, with the fourth quarter doing nothing to halt the gains.

Responding to an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates yesterday by 0.25%. Commentary focussed on slow growth and falling inflation, with the main area of concern being the economic growth forecasts. It was not exactly reassuring to see the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote five to four in favour of a sixth rate cut since the summer of 2024, as it forecast that inflation is likely to fall close to its

Our chancellor has allegedly not been forthcoming with the truth. She has also implicated the Prime Minister in her misinformation. The Head of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been sacrificed after the release of last week’s budget information before the actual budget. I remember apologising for repeatedly writing about President Trump earlier in the year, and it feels that I am now continuously writing about our embattled chancellor. If the markets and the publ

The run-up to the 2025 Budget may have been characterised by greater conjecture about what would, or wouldn’t, be announced than in perhaps any other “pre-fiscal event” period in the UK’s modern political history. The last-minute leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts only added to the sense of anticipation of what would be revealed. For better or for worse, the Chancellor has now delivered her statement, and the official “Red Book” of policy announcements (

Back to the markets this week and I will start with Nvidia, whose sales of microchips at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom in the last quarter rose even faster than Wall Street anticipated. The world’s most valuable company reported its revenue rose 62% year on year to $57bn in the three months to the end of October, beating consensus estimates. Nvidia’s revenue forecast for the current quarter was $65bn, about $3bn more than Wall Street expected. Having had a rec

Sir Keir Starmer is nervously looking over his shoulder. A huge majority 18 months ago has turned quickly into contempt and disillusionment. These days, a Prime Minister is not safe in power. Baroness Thatcher’s dramatic downfall defined a new era where party leaders and even Prime Ministers could not safely assume they could remain in post in almost any circumstances. After her departure, a system whereby Tory MPs can register their lack of confidence in the party leader was

The chancellor’s speech on Tuesday was a strange thing indeed. Emergency speeches in the early hours of the day are normally reserved for resignations or drastic news – sadly, we got neither. Having considered her intentions over the last few days, it seems more likely that she was talking to the markets rather than the general public, to smooth concerns that she has no plan. As I have written previously, UK Gilt yields remain high, therefore the cost of maintaining our almos

No Halloween jokes needed, as this week I must revert to a familiar supernatural force – that of US President Donald Trump. The trade “conflict” between the US and China has caused market volatility to increase in recent weeks, so if we are to believe the news this week, any improvement in this relationship is good news for clients’ portfolios. As I write on Thursday, President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and com

Now, a break from the norm, as it is all getting a bit depressing. If you wish for further depression, I will revert to the budget and economy later in this email. As the world looks for ways to curb biodiversity loss, new financial tools are being developed to fund the preservation and restoration of ecosystems. I imagine my compliance department would ask me to point out here that this is a news article and not financial advice for a new investment! The latest example is in

Which side of the argument is coming across as having more respect and class? This week when discussing their latest trade escalations, China spoke of “mutual respect” and “peaceful coexistence,” but Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Chief, described a very different encounter when a top Chinese trade official arrived in Washington. Bessent was reported to state that the negotiator turned up uninvited and acted “unhinged.” The Trump circus continues, despite his success in the M

Last week was the turn of the Labour party, this week was the Conservative party conference. Rather like a game of cricket on a wet day,...

Traditionally, at a Conservative party annual conference, Labour are in the cross hairs for some good old-fashioned bashing, and vice...

Despite Nigel Farage deflecting much of the news flow away from Sir Keir Starmer this week, the Prime Minister still fell foul of a...

Donald Trump is back in the UK. At the state banquet he announced - “The bond of kinship and identity between America and the United...

Whilst I am sure this is not what he would have wanted, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has sought to create opportunity after the...

I cannot decide if Rachel Reeves’ decision to announce the next UK budget date on the 26th November 2025 was a mere coincidence to fall...

This week we heard that the UK economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations but underlining the...

US President Donald Trump has continued his self-proclaimed success as tariffs on countries he has yet to “do a deal” with kicked in once...

Having outmanoeuvred EU representatives, President Trump and his team have struck a further “deal” – this time with Europe, to bring the...

Tariff talk continues, with Japan and the US agreeing a 15% tariff, that is apparently being offered to other regions such as Europe,...

Rising unemployment, higher than expected inflation, Trump attacking the US Federal Reserve Chairman, in between his tariff announcements...

Now that we can look back on the second quarter of 2025, it seems quite surreal that markets have remained so promising. We have moved...

What a grim week for the chancellor Rachel Reeves. It did not even start very well for her, as she was given a harsh reminder of the...

Shackleton Expands its Presence in the South West with the Acquisition of the Chetwood Group Shackleton Advisers Limited (“Shackleton”)...

The NATO Summit, held in The Hague this week, was marked by a clear effort from alliance members to address and accommodate the...

Interest rates in the US and the UK have been held steady this week by their respective central banks as inflation refuses to fall,...

This week’s update must surely start with sincere condolences for anyone involved in the terrible plane crash in India yesterday. As I...

Whatever you may think of him and his politics, there seems little doubt that Trump has polarised Europe to finally come together and...

Britain’s fiscal fiddling has come to the attention of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On Tuesday, in its annual health check of...

It came as no surprise, given Rachel Reeves’ employer NI tax rises and an increase to the minimum wage that came in during April, that UK...

A jumbo jet worth an estimated $400m and replete with golden bathrooms and wood trimmings is proving irresistible to Donald Trump, though...

Yesterday the Bank of England announced that they would cut UK interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%. This was not the only good news for the...

I am afraid we have another week dominated by you know who, standing firm, then buckling under renewed pressure against his global tariff...

It has been a better week for investment markets as Donald Trump has started to signal a further retreat on his tariffs as more CEOs warn...

President Trump has long extolled the virtues of tariffs. You have to say American voters should have known what they were getting, even...

I am afraid I have no choice; today’s update is indeed all about President Donald Trump. On Wednesday we had the much discussed...

Wednesday’s spring statement gave Rachel Reeves an opportunity to convince us that she has put the UK public finances on a stable...

This has been an interesting week of announcements from the major developed market central banks. First off was Jerome Powell, Chair of...

Financial markets have witnessed a dramatic change in leadership, as US equities continue to struggle in the face of President Trump’s...

The European push to support Ukraine has stepped up a significant notch this week with Germany now announcing a huge raft of spending...

It’s been another week of news focused on Trump and the Ukraine, with Prime Minister Starmer promising to increase his UK defence budget...

I did try very hard to avoid Donald Trump last week, however I am afraid this week he has forced his way back into my weekly musings. Be...

The Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% last week was widely anticipated, but it still stunned some...

I appreciate that by the time you read this President Trump has probably staked claim to another piece of global real estate to go with...