Britain's main political parties have refused to contest the Clacton by-election triggered by Nigel Farage's resignation, describing the vote as a political stunt designed to distract from ongoing investigations into his financial declarations. Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Restore Britain have all ruled out standing candidates, leaving Farage likely to face only minor-party and independent challengers. Reform UK argues the move demonstrates opponen

This week we have been considering two major themes for our clients: a renewed domestic focus on regional growth led by Andy Burnham, and a wider geopolitical shift towards higher defence spending. Undoubtedly both have the potential to influence markets, taxation, public investment and therefore long-term financial planning. The first story concerns Andy Burnham’s proposed “Number 10 North”, a Manchester-based growth unit intended to give the prospective prime minister a str

Oh, for a quiet life. Sadly, there is no chance of that in UK politics as we have the certainty of soon welcoming our 6th Prime Minister since 2019. Andy Burnham returned to Parliament on Monday, and before his train had even arrived in London, Sir Keir Starmer had resigned as leader of the Labour party and therefore also given notice on his time as UK Prime Minister. Burnham is the anointed successor, with his by-election victory widely interpreted as a sign that Labour supp

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged yesterday at 3.75%, as falling oil prices eased some of the inflation risks created by the recent Middle East conflict. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7–2 to hold rates, with two members favouring a small increase due to concerns that higher energy costs could still feed into wages and business pricing. Oil prices had surged when the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted earlier in the year, but they have since declined followin

This week’s client update comes to you a day early. Global equity markets continue to be dominated by developments in artificial intelligence and the broader technology sector, but the latest news flow underlines just how unsettled and unpredictable this part of the market has become. I appreciate that I wrote about artificial intelligence (AI) stocks last week and I do not want this to get boring, however no sooner had we issued last weeks newsletter, than we had strong jobs

In our ongoing political saga, Andy Burnham has formally indicated that he will enter a Labour leadership contest if he wins the Makerfield by election on 18 June, saying he would seek to represent the constituency “at the highest possible level”. His comments follow suggestions that Wes Streeting may also be preparing a leadership bid. Under Labour rules, any challenger must be an MP and secure backing from 81 colleagues. Polling for the by election shows Burnham ahead of Re

I am not sure I completely believe the daily news of a possible peace agreement in the Middle East. Each day a different angle on a breakthrough, and then more bombings and harsh words. Again, today I read that the United States and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days while peace talks continue. This comes despite renewed clashes around the Strait of Hormuz, where both sides have exchanged fire as Israel intensifies its operation

The UK political environment continues to shift uneasily, and many clients are naturally asking what a future Labour government might mean for economic policy, taxation, and the performance of UK stock markets. While no election outcome is guaranteed, it is reasonable for clients to consider how different leadership styles and policy priorities could influence the investment landscape. One figure who attracts particular attention is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchest

No Labour Prime Minister has ever been removed from office through a formal leadership contest. I wonder if this fact might change in the coming months. The combination of Andy Burnham’s plan to return to Westminster, Wes Streeting’s resignation, and mounting pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, has created a level of uncertainty that is rippling through UK financial markets. Andy Burnham has formally announced that he will seek Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) approval t

Reading back over my weekly emails since the end of March, I seem to have mentioned an end to the Iran / Middle East conflict on a weekly basis, yet here we are still hanging on the news flow. This weeks Memorandum of Understanding issued to Iran by the US, via Pakistan, gives hope for an end to the loss of human life, an opening of the Straits of Hormuz and more stable investment markets and less inflationary pressures as the oil price gradually falls. We keep our fingers cr

Yesterday the Bank of England has maintained interest rates at 3.75%, while indicating that further increases may be required if the ongoing energy shock linked to the conflict in Iran continues to place upward pressure on global prices and, in turn, UK inflation. At its latest meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8–1 to keep rates unchanged for a third consecutive time. The sole dissent came from Huw Pill, the Bank’s Chief Economist, who supported a 0.25 percen

Since I last wrote, economic news continues to be dominated by Middle Eastern tensions, much to the relief of our Prime Minister who would otherwise be front and centre of just about every newspaper, every day this week. He must have thought a few months ago that he was through the worst of his political nightmare. Apparently not. Since stories concerning a resolution to the Iranian conflict surfaced two weeks ago and markets surged, the last fortnight has reflected the deepe

Over the past 48 hours, the geopolitical climate in the Middle East has shifted noticeably, and so has the rhetoric coming from Washington. A rather weary looking President Donald Trump addressed the US nation last night and began signalling a softer, more conciliatory stance stating that the conflict was almost over. This was a sudden change from some of his most forceful threats just days before. Markets, ever sensitive to the ebb and flow of geopolitical risk, have respond

Throughout this week, you may have noticed that US President Donald Trump has occasionally asserted that the United States is engaged in meaningful talks with Iranian leadership to end the ongoing war. He understatedly described Iranians as “great negotiators” and claimed they were “begging to make a deal,” even suggesting that the U.S. and Iran were already aligned on several key points. Trump also implied that his administration had paused certain military actions because n

Major central banks spent this week navigating a delicate balance: maintaining credibility in their inflation‑fighting campaigns while acknowledging that the escalating conflict involving Iran has injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic outlook. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and several others opted to keep interest rates unchanged, signalling caution rather than complacency as geopolitical tensions threaten to reshape the path of in

It will not surprise you that this week’s missive focuses on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued his first public statement calling for the Strait of Hormuz to “remain closed”, signalling a hardening of Iran’s strategy. He also warned that Iran would continue targeting US bases in the Gulf, despite intelligence sources suggesting he has already been injured during the conflict. The closure of the strait—through whic

Our thoughts this week have focussed on those caught up in the Middle Eastern conflict centred around Iran and Israel, that has since spread out into the surrounding region. The latest escalation—particularly Iran widening its response beyond Israel and signalling potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—has increased concerns about a spike in global energy prices and the risk of a broader economic slowdown. The Strait remains open, but higher insurance costs and the thre

What a confusing world we find ourselves in. Cast your mind back ten years – imagine one of the leading businesses in the marketplace announcing forecast revenue of $78 billion dollars in a three-month period, and its share price doesn’t react. That is indeed strange, but here we are today. Chip maker Nvidia’s latest earnings underline the scale of the AI boom but also how nervous investors have become about how long it can last. The company delivered another blockbuster quar

For once, the UK’s inflation story is drifting from grim to vaguely cheerful. After four years of outpacing the US and euro area, and after a 3.4% rise in prices over the past year, inflation now looks set to drop sharply. Come April, it is expected to fall to around 2%, basically bang on the Bank of England’s target. Even President Trump might secretly envy a central bank that looks like it can actually hit 2%. Three forces are doing the heavy lifting. First, energy. The com

Our Prime Minister is hanging on, but only just. The argument goes that although Sir Keir Starmer’s government is weak and unpopular, replacing him would likely make things worse. British politics has seen leaders cling on after losing authority, and maybe we should hope Starmer can as well – not because he can turn this around, but because the alternatives are worse. If Starmer falls, his successor would almost certainly come from Labour’s left, pushing policies voters have

I do not imagine that any of this is new to you, however I should start this week’s missive with comment on Sir Keir Starmer and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. The story has quite fairly dominated news flows this week after the prime minister admitted he did know about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein from a document he was handed at the end of December 2024. Crucially this was before he appointed Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States.

The first few weeks of 2026 have been anything but dull. Over just one weekend, America threatened to slap Canada with 100% tariffs, US Congress started squabbling toward yet another possible shutdown, Japan experienced its own Liz Truss style bond meltdown, China accused one of its own generals of leaking nuclear secrets, and the US dollar continued to weaken. And yet, in the middle of all this “noise,” the stock market has pretty much sailed through the storm as if it was a

European leaders in Brussels breathed a collective sigh of relief this week after Donald Trump suddenly decided not to slap new tariffs on them or try to “buy” Greenland. It was, in their eyes, the diplomatic equivalent of waking up from a bad dream — one that could have wrecked decades of transatlantic friendship. Trump’s original plan to grab Greenland and punish Europe with trade barriers had shocked leaders from Copenhagen to Berlin at this week’s gathering in Davos. The

Markets have come a long way in the last ten years. 2009 heralded ten years of low interest rates, ample liquidity via Quantitative Easing and a strengthening global supply chain. In the last three years this has morphed into higher inflation, huge public debt, and reshoring of industrial capacity and sudden fall in global trade. As a result, policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and capital movements now influence markets as strongly as traditional economic cycles. For inves

Looking back on last year, it was very pleasing to see that investment returns defied the barrage of political and economic noise throughout the year. In spite of ongoing debates around whether governments are spending too much, if the economy can continue to grow, the impact of military flare-ups across the world, and concerns over various market bubbles, nonetheless major equity indices were up between 12-20% in 2025, with the fourth quarter doing nothing to halt the gains.

Responding to an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates yesterday by 0.25%. Commentary focussed on slow growth and falling inflation, with the main area of concern being the economic growth forecasts. It was not exactly reassuring to see the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote five to four in favour of a sixth rate cut since the summer of 2024, as it forecast that inflation is likely to fall close to its

Our chancellor has allegedly not been forthcoming with the truth. She has also implicated the Prime Minister in her misinformation. The Head of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been sacrificed after the release of last week’s budget information before the actual budget. I remember apologising for repeatedly writing about President Trump earlier in the year, and it feels that I am now continuously writing about our embattled chancellor. If the markets and the publ

The run-up to the 2025 Budget may have been characterised by greater conjecture about what would, or wouldn’t, be announced than in perhaps any other “pre-fiscal event” period in the UK’s modern political history. The last-minute leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts only added to the sense of anticipation of what would be revealed. For better or for worse, the Chancellor has now delivered her statement, and the official “Red Book” of policy announcements (

Back to the markets this week and I will start with Nvidia, whose sales of microchips at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom in the last quarter rose even faster than Wall Street anticipated. The world’s most valuable company reported its revenue rose 62% year on year to $57bn in the three months to the end of October, beating consensus estimates. Nvidia’s revenue forecast for the current quarter was $65bn, about $3bn more than Wall Street expected. Having had a rec

Sir Keir Starmer is nervously looking over his shoulder. A huge majority 18 months ago has turned quickly into contempt and disillusionment. These days, a Prime Minister is not safe in power. Baroness Thatcher’s dramatic downfall defined a new era where party leaders and even Prime Ministers could not safely assume they could remain in post in almost any circumstances. After her departure, a system whereby Tory MPs can register their lack of confidence in the party leader was

The chancellor’s speech on Tuesday was a strange thing indeed. Emergency speeches in the early hours of the day are normally reserved for resignations or drastic news – sadly, we got neither. Having considered her intentions over the last few days, it seems more likely that she was talking to the markets rather than the general public, to smooth concerns that she has no plan. As I have written previously, UK Gilt yields remain high, therefore the cost of maintaining our almos

No Halloween jokes needed, as this week I must revert to a familiar supernatural force – that of US President Donald Trump. The trade “conflict” between the US and China has caused market volatility to increase in recent weeks, so if we are to believe the news this week, any improvement in this relationship is good news for clients’ portfolios. As I write on Thursday, President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and com

Now, a break from the norm, as it is all getting a bit depressing. If you wish for further depression, I will revert to the budget and economy later in this email. As the world looks for ways to curb biodiversity loss, new financial tools are being developed to fund the preservation and restoration of ecosystems. I imagine my compliance department would ask me to point out here that this is a news article and not financial advice for a new investment! The latest example is in

Which side of the argument is coming across as having more respect and class? This week when discussing their latest trade escalations, China spoke of “mutual respect” and “peaceful coexistence,” but Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Chief, described a very different encounter when a top Chinese trade official arrived in Washington. Bessent was reported to state that the negotiator turned up uninvited and acted “unhinged.” The Trump circus continues, despite his success in the M

Last week was the turn of the Labour party, this week was the Conservative party conference. Rather like a game of cricket on a wet day,...

Traditionally, at a Conservative party annual conference, Labour are in the cross hairs for some good old-fashioned bashing, and vice...

Despite Nigel Farage deflecting much of the news flow away from Sir Keir Starmer this week, the Prime Minister still fell foul of a...

Donald Trump is back in the UK. At the state banquet he announced - “The bond of kinship and identity between America and the United...

Whilst I am sure this is not what he would have wanted, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has sought to create opportunity after the...

I cannot decide if Rachel Reeves’ decision to announce the next UK budget date on the 26th November 2025 was a mere coincidence to fall...

This week we heard that the UK economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing expectations but underlining the...

US President Donald Trump has continued his self-proclaimed success as tariffs on countries he has yet to “do a deal” with kicked in once...

Having outmanoeuvred EU representatives, President Trump and his team have struck a further “deal” – this time with Europe, to bring the...

Tariff talk continues, with Japan and the US agreeing a 15% tariff, that is apparently being offered to other regions such as Europe,...

Rising unemployment, higher than expected inflation, Trump attacking the US Federal Reserve Chairman, in between his tariff announcements...

Now that we can look back on the second quarter of 2025, it seems quite surreal that markets have remained so promising. We have moved...

What a grim week for the chancellor Rachel Reeves. It did not even start very well for her, as she was given a harsh reminder of the...

Shackleton Expands its Presence in the South West with the Acquisition of the Chetwood Group Shackleton Advisers Limited (“Shackleton”)...

The NATO Summit, held in The Hague this week, was marked by a clear effort from alliance members to address and accommodate the...

Interest rates in the US and the UK have been held steady this week by their respective central banks as inflation refuses to fall,...