Sir Keir Starmer is nervously looking over his shoulder. A huge majority 18 months ago has turned quickly into contempt and disillusionment. These days, a Prime Minister is not safe in power.

Baroness Thatcher’s dramatic downfall defined a new era where party leaders and even Prime Ministers could not safely assume they could remain in post in almost any circumstances. After her departure, a system whereby Tory MPs can register their lack of confidence in the party leader was part of William Hague’s reforms to party rules.

Labour has no such system in place, so whilst Starmer knows that he cannot be forced out of Downing Street by his unhappy MPs, the party would be thrown into turmoil (even more), should he face a formal challenge from a specific candidate.

History does not bode well for the Prime Minister. Tony Blair’s record as Labour’s most successful ever election winner was not impressive enough, in September 2006, to dissuade a few unhappy MPs that it was time for him to be removed. They wanted to replace him with someone they saw as more likely to win a fourth consecutive election – a certain Gordon Brown.

Names in the frame as potential successors include former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, energy secretary and previous Labour leader Ed Miliband, health secretary Wes Streeting and deputy leader Lucy Powell. The personal ratings of Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have plummeted. Reform UK was neck and neck with Labour in the polls in April but is now 13 points ahead. MPs are braced for the administration to become more disliked later this month when Reeves increases taxes again by billions of pounds.

The perils of moving against the leadership too early were laid bare ahead of the Labour conference in September when Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, spoke out against Starmer before falling back into line. You could argue that “FOMO” – the fear of missing out, has driven markets higher in the US over the last few months, the same is potentially true with aspiring Labour party leaders. The view is growing that ‘if I don’t move now, I’ll miss out, this is my last best opportunity’ and it develops a momentum of its own.

No sitting Labour Prime Minister has been directly ousted by their own party. There have been three major attempts to force out Labour leaders in the 21st century, none of them wholly successful. Starmer prides himself on his competitive and resilient nature, but he nearly resigned as leader in 2021 after losing the Hartlepool by-election. As one sympathetic Labour figure stated this week: “Forcing him out through the rule book is almost impossible and would make everyone look like idiots because it would fail. So, the only way there is a change is if he comes to the conclusion himself.” We shall see. It is certainly going to be an interesting month or two for the Labour party and politics in general. Do have a good weekend.