Reading back over my weekly emails since the end of March, I seem to have mentioned an end to the Iran / Middle East conflict on a weekly basis, yet here we are still hanging on the news flow. This weeks Memorandum of Understanding issued to Iran by the US, via Pakistan, gives hope for an end to the loss of human life, an opening of the Straits of Hormuz and more stable investment markets and less inflationary pressures as the oil price gradually falls. We keep our fingers crossed.

I will not make the same mistake pontificating on today’s local elections in the UK and any possible outcome, although by the time you read this, I am sure a bleak outcome for the Labour party will have been confirmed.

More than 5,000 council seats are being contested. Early coverage confirmed a challenging outlook for Labour, which is defending over half of all English seats and is widely expected to lose a substantial share. Polling experts cited in recent reporting suggest Labour could lose between 50% and 75% of the seats it is defending, reflecting voter dissatisfaction and a sharp drop in national polling support.

Reform UK is positioned as a major disruptor, with projections showing it could gain over 1,300 seats, potentially taking control of councils such as Sunderland, Thurrock, Wakefield, and Barnsley.

The Green Party is also expected to perform strongly, particularly in London and other urban centres, with forecasts of over 500 seat gains. Their rise, alongside Reform’s, is likely to push many councils into no overall control, creating more fragmented local governance.

Reform is heavily favoured to win the most seats, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats competing for second place, while Labour and the Conservatives are trading at much longer odds.

These likely outcomes underline a broader trend of voters feeling politically “unanchored”. Local elections are not always a reliable indicator of the next general election outcome, as they are often used as protest votes. The expected gains for Reform UK and the Green Party suggest voters are increasingly willing to express frustration through alternatives. This doesn’t necessarily mean deep ideological alignment—it often signals a desire to “send a message” about issues like cost of living, public services, immigration, or climate policy.

In past cycles—such as 2018, 2021, and 2022—voters tended to shift modestly between the two major parties. This year’s forecasts show a much sharper willingness to move toward alternatives like Reform UK and the Green Party. Historically, local elections produced clear swings—Labour up, Conservatives down, or vice‑versa. This year resembles the 2019 local elections, when frustration with national politics led to widespread gains for smaller parties and independents. Forecasts today point to a similar pattern: more councils expected to fall into no overall control, signalling a fractured electorate.

Whatever the final outcome, weak and indecisive leadership is costing the UK confidence on a global scale and UK equities remain attractive, but unloved. If Starmer does go, the options that lie in wait for the leadership of the Labour party do unsettle me. So, for now, I will simply focus on a very pleasant market recovery in the past few weeks and who would have thought I almost hope that Donald Trump will do something stupid once more to distract me from the political naivety back here in the UK. Do have a good weekend.